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Time series problems

Time series machine learning problems involve leveraging historical data to forecast numerical metrics for specific dates and times.

Comparing regression and time series problems

Regression problems are similar to time series problems in both the target variable and the real-world use cases they involve. There are also several differences between these two problem types.

For more information about regression problems, see Regression problems.

Similarities

  • Both involve a numerical target column.

  • Both are commonly used in financial use cases involving sales and monetary forecasting.

Differences

  • Time series problems support grouped targets, while regression problems do not (see Components of a time series problem). Grouped scenarios can still be addressed for regression problems by training multiple different models, at the cost of global learning across groups.

  • Time series problems support scenarios where you know certain feature variables ahead of time—for example, weather-related forecasts, planned promotional discounts, and whether dates fall on week days, weekends, and holidays. These feature variables are known as Future features.

  • For time series problems, data must be indexed by date or datetime on a fixed time interval. Also, different data content is expected and generated during training and predictions (see Preparing a training dataset and Preparing an apply dataset).

  • In time series problems, predicted values explicitly correspond to specific dates and times. In regression problems, predicted values may or may not correspond to specific dates and times, but if they do, this association is implied rather than explicitly denoted in output.

  • Different algorithms are used (see Understanding model algorithms).

Time series example: Future sales

This example presents a high-level of the data you need to collect and provide for a time series problem. To learn more about developing frameworks for time series problems, see Working with multivariate time series forecasting.

In this example, the goal is to forecast daily sales for the next four days. In addition, it has been requested that daily sales totals are predicted for each region and product group. With the need for sales by region and product group, a multivariate time series problem has been established.

To start, data is collected and aggregated to train the model. The requirement is that a total sales amount, per region and product group, is presented for each day within a specific time range. In addition, it is desired to provide how many products are available on promotion per day for each region and product group.

Sample of collected data
Date Products on Promotion Region Product Group Sales
2025-01-01 100 North America Grocery 99642.10
2025-01-01 31 South America Product 34660.34
2025-01-01 11 North America Deli 60345.44
2025-01-01 14 South America Grocery 44603.33
2025-01-01 76 North America Product 105844.44
2025-01-01 133 South America Deli 150385.44
2025-01-02 17 North America Grocery 80195.22
2025-01-02 35 South America Product 61051.13
2025-01-02 24 North America Deli 55938.38
2025-01-02 118 South America Grocery 104823.33
2025-01-02 40 North America Product 11111.12
2025-01-02 73 South America Deli 15493.33

Suppose the last date for which historical data is available is 2025-10-09. Theoretically, after training, deploying, and predicting with a time series model for this use case, you could expect the following predictions.

Sample of predicted data
Date Products on Promotion Region Product Group Sales
2025-10-10 0 North America Grocery 193803.15
2025-10-10 14 South America Product 76666.66
2025-10-10 55 North America Deli 30593.55
2025-10-10 2 South America Grocery 10549.33
2025-10-10 1341 North America Product 100003.33
2025-10-11 0 South America Deli 70001.87
2025-10-11 0 North America Grocery 39522.11
2025-10-11 150 South America Product 91859.30
2025-10-11 65 North America Deli 19583.55
2025-10-11 12 South America Grocery 194863.00
2025-10-11 70 North America Product 140244.13
2025-10-11 15 South America Deli 76666.66
2025-10-12 20 North America Grocery 30593.55
2025-10-12 20 South America Product 10549.33
2025-10-12 39 North America Deli 100003.33
2025-10-12 109 South America Grocery 105893.99
2025-10-12 37 North America Product 80195.22
2025-10-13 75 South America Deli 61051.13
2025-10-13 190 North America Grocery 55938.38
2025-10-13 0 South America Product 104823.33
2025-10-13 0 North America Deli 99105.99
2025-10-13 100 South America Grocery 130533.31
2025-10-13 0 North America Product 67676.73
2025-10-13 14 South America Deli 100474.24

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